The 2025 NDP Leadership Bracket

by Nicholas Harrison

W

ith the exception of those established party insiders who want a short, tight, name-brand-only leadership race, most progressives that I’ve spoken to want to see a wide open race for the next leader of the NDP. As a lifelong sports fan, when I think about a wide open competition, I immediately turn to one event for inspiration: March Madness.

In that spirit, I have created a bracket that tries to capture the full kaleidoscope of potential paths forward for the party — from radical socialists to establishment centrists, from dynastic party insiders to rabble-rousing outsiders, and of course from coast to coast to coast. I’ve even got a few candidates on here who have publicly declined to run, because if there’s one thing you can never trust from a politician, it is them refusing to run for office!

QC-East Division

(1) Valerie Plante
(2) Alexandre Boulerice
(3) Ruth Ellen Brosseau
(4) Gary Burrill
(5) Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
(6) Mary Shortall
(7) Megan Leslie
(8) Ruba Ghazal
(9) Manon Massé
(10) Jonathan Pedneault
(11) Claudia Chender
(12) Nima Machouf
(13) Nora Loreto
(14) Thomas Mulcair

BYES:

(1) Valerie Plante, Mayor of Montreal

The first woman mayor of Montreal has been a municipal force, leading the progressive Projet Montreal to a majority of seats in the city council and driving an agenda of rapid transit and affordable housing. Having announced that she will not run for re-election at the end of her term in November 2025, there is a clear path for her to take the leap into the federal race as a strong Quebec voice. 

(2) Alexandre Boulerice, MP for Rosemount-Le Petite Patrie

Even in a devastatingly poor election for the NDP, Boulerice not only held his seat but has now become the only sitting NDP MP anywhere east of Winnipeg. Now a five-time MP, he publicly raised his hand for the interim leadership role last week — but since it was in French, maybe nobody else in the party heard him? Maybe an official run for the full-time job could restore the Quebec-NDP alliance.

Note: Alexandre Boulerice has declined to run.

Matchups:

(3) Ruth Ellen Brosseau, ex-MP for Berthier-Maskinongé vs 
(14) Thomas Mulcair, ex-NDP leader and ex-MP for Outremont

Remember the paper candidate who went to Vegas during the 2011 Orange Wave election? Well, since then, Ruth Ellen Brosseau committed wholeheartedly to the farm-dense riding, winning two re-elections before losing in 2019 and making her home in the area. Meanwhile, Thomas Mulcair, responsible for the ebbing of the Orange Wave, has turned into a pundit, predominantly making news by attacking the party he once led. But perhaps that is all just the rhetoric of a man scorned, and he’s ready to be hurt again by trying to win the party back?

(4) Gary Burrill, ex-leader of the Nova Scotia NDP vs 
(13) Nora Loreto, podcaster, writer and activist

When I asked some East Coast friends for possible names from Atlantic Canada to throw into this bracket, Gary Burrill was the only name to come up multiple times. Having held seats both federally and provincially for the NDP, and as a former provincial leader, experience is putting it lightly. Quebec City’s Nora Loreto has made many sharp critiques of the NDP — both on social media and on her very successful podcast, Sandy and Nora — but her labour bonafides, from student organizing to UNIFOR and the Canadian Freelance Union, speak for themselves.

(5) Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, ex-spokesperson for Quebec Solidaire vs
(12) Nima Machouf, doctor and candidate in Laurier–Sainte-Marie

The Quebec NDP has never really been a thing, but the greatest progressive movement out of Quebec in recent decades has been Quebec Solidaire. “GND” was one of the faces of the party through their surge forward in 2018 and 2022 and comes from Quebec’s vibrant student labour movement. Nima Machouf is an organizer, HIV/AIDS researcher and the spouse of Amir Khadir, QS’ first elected representative. Looking at results from the 2025 election, Machouf is one of the few NDP to have overperformed their polling — does she have a recipe for renewed party growth?

(6) Mary Shortall, president of federal NDP vs 
(11) Claudia Chender, leader of Nova Scotia NDP

It doesn’t get much more establishment in the NDP than the party’s elected president, who since 2023 has been Mary Shortall, the former president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour and a repeat candidate on the Rock. Meanwhile, the Nova Scotia NDP has been the source of a past federal leader in Alexa McDonough — so why not the first woman Leader of the Opposition, Dartmouth’s own Claudia Chender?

(7) Megan Leslie, CEO of World Wildlife Fund Canada and ex-MP for Halifax vs 
(10) Jonathan Pedneault, ex-leader of the Green Party of Canada

Another option who can claim a lineage from Alexa McDonough, Megan Leslie has not run for office since losing in 2015, but she was considered a serious option to follow Mulcair in 2017, and she has stayed involved in politics by sitting on the Leaders Debate Commission — though maybe that isn’t a point in her favour. In that role, she also was responsible for removing from the stage the former war zone journalist Jonathan Pedneault, who ran as co-leader for the Green Party, but was never quite able to step out from the shadow of Elizabeth May. After his recent resignation, could he switch from green to orange and make a claim to unite the left?

(8) Ruba Ghazal, co-spokesperson of Quebec Solidaire and MNA for Mercier vs 
(9) Manon Massé, ex-spokesperson of Quebec Solidaire and MNA for Ste-Marie-St-Jacques

The structure of Quebec Solidaire’s co-leadership requires two things to be balanced — one man and one woman, and one elected and one non-elected spokesperson. This has led to a significantly higher-than-normal amount of turnover in the role, giving us a whole bunch of options to look at. Manon Massé was the party’s candidate for Premier in 2018, and has an internationalist lens, including being an observer for Catalonia’s independence referendum. Ruba Ghazal has been in the chair since November and has been a fierce advocate for Palestinian rights.

Back to the bracket list.

West Division:

(1) Jenny Kwan
(2) Avi Lewis
(3) David Eby
(4) Gord Johns
(5) Don Davies
(6) Peter Julian
(7) Nathan Cullen
(8) Rachel Blaney
(9) Kennedy Stewart
(10) Taylor Bachrach
(11) Laurel Collins
(12) Rob Ashton
(13) Alastair MacGregor
(14) Jagmeet Singh

BYES:

(1) Jenny Kwan, MP for Vancouver East

One of the three safest NDP victories in the election, Jenny Kwan has been a steady presence in Vancouver, with 3 years in municipal, 9 years in provincial and now 10 years in federal politics. Her grip on the downtown constituency is in little doubt, even in the face of confirmed external threats from China. She has already appeared on multiple shortlists of potential leadership candidates, and her focus on housing and immigration makes for a very impactful policy profile.

(2) Avi Lewis, documentary director and candidate for Vancouver Centre

Man, remember the Leap Manifesto? Avi Lewis sure does! As one of the creators, along with his wife Naomi Klein, he has been successfully mixing messaging on inequality and climate change — and has been recognized as one of the most potent left-wing fundraisers in Canada as a result. The only thing he hasn’t done yet? Win an election. That said, as the son and grandson of past NDP leaders, Avi could scratch many Canadians’ odd desire for dynasty while delivering on real progressive policy. 

Matchups:

(3) David Eby, Premier of British Columbia and leader of BC NDP vs 
(14) Jagmeet Singh, ex-NDP leader and ex-MP for Burnaby Central

Already the active premier of one of Canada’s largest provinces, David Eby would arguably be taking a step down to run for the leadership of the federal NDP. That’s not to say he’d have an easy job of it — he’s never broken above 48% approval in his home province since becoming leader in 2022. On the other hand, when you compare that to outgoing leader Jagmeet Singh’s 33% approval on the eve of the 2025 election, maybe that’s not so bad?

Note: David Eby has declined to run.

(4) Gord Johns, MP for Courtnay-Alberni vs 
(13) Alastair MacGregor, ex-MP for Cowichan-Malahat-Langford

Gord Johns held onto his seat in one of the biggest polling upsets in favour of the NDP in the election, so clearly he’s figured out at least a little bit about how to pitch the party in this moment. Alastair MacGregor didn’t quite hold onto his seat, but after really crawling through the polling data for any loose shreds of optimism, he was one of the only NDP candidates to finish as a runner-up.

(5) Don Davies, MP for Vancouver Kingsway (and interim leader) vs 
(12) Rob Ashton, President of ILWU Canada (International Longshore & Warehouse Union)

Don Davies has taken on the interim leader job, which is often an indication that someone will not run for the full-time job. However, the NDP constitution does not exclude interim leaders from running, and Davies has notably not declined the option to run from the inside track. When I asked friends about national union leaders who could make the leap into party politics, Rob Ashton was not who I expected. No Wikipedia page, a blank About Me on the union website, and a LinkedIn listing his one and only role for the last 13 years. But leading a powerful union through a multi-year port strike is a pivotal role — and what else would you want out of a strong union rep than someone who speaks softly and carries a big stick?

(6) Peter Julian, ex-MP for New Westminster-Burnaby vs 
(11) Laurel Collins, ex-MP for Victoria

Continuing on our round-up of West Coast NDP runners-up from the 2015 election, we come to Peter Julian and Laurel Collins. Laurel’s strong voice on feminist and climate issues run from her university days through her Critic roles, and the Victoria riding is a likely spot for an NDP bounceback. Peter Julian is a name I have specifically heard suggested to me as a potential option, and his more purely political role as House Leader means that he both has some degree of name recognition and procedural savvy.

(7) Nathan Cullen, ex-MPP for Stikine and ex-MP for Skeena-Bulkley Valley vs
(10) Taylor Bachrach, ex-MP for Skeena-Bulkley Valley and ex-mayor of Smithers

Can a town of 5,500 people really sustain two federal leadership candidates? If anywhere can, it is the jewel of the BC interior — and if anyone can, it is these two Smithereens. Just like Peter Julian, Cullen has also served as federal House leader, meaning he is experienced in the dark Parliamentary arts — but Taylor Bachrach brings the executive experience of three terms as the mayor of the metropolis.

(8) Rachel Blaney, ex-MP for North Island-Powell River and ex-party whip vs 
(9) Kennedy Stewart, ex-mayor of Vancouver and ex-MP for Burnaby South 

Another vital insider role is the party whip, and Rachel Blaney has held that whip for 6 years — meaning she has extremely recent experience with all of the other faces around the NDP table, something that can absolutely shape a party’s leadership race. Kennedy Stewart served one term as the progressive, independent mayor of Vancouver after 7 years as a Burnaby area MP, running a city council that is structured in a way that is perhaps best described as “prone to dysfunction”.

Back to the bracket list.

Central Division:

(1) Heather McPherson
(2) Rachel Notley
(3) Wab Kinew
(4) Niki Ashton
(5) Leila Dance
(6) Lori Idlout
(7) Daniel Blaikie
(8) Charlie Angus
(9) Naheed Nenshi
(10) Leah Gazan
(11) Mumilaaq Qaqqaq
(12) Blake Desjarlais
(13) Uzoma Asagwara
(14) Adrien Sala

(1) Heather McPherson, MP for Edmonton-Strathcona 

If you were forced to pick a singular frontrunner at this early juncture, McPherson would be it. One of the three most secure NDP MPs in the country, despite being in the heart of Alberta, she has been acknowledged as a popular member of the party and a powerful operator. With Foreign Affairs Critic under her belt and a fascinating mix of personal stances (pro-Palestinian statehood, pro-pipeline & oilsands), she may not win the race, but she is likely to steer its policy agenda.

(2) Rachel Notley, ex-Premier of Alberta and ex-MPP for Edmonton-Strathcona

A phenomenally polarizing but undoubtedly well-known face on the national stage, Notley represents the clearest example of the NDP theory of success that leads through aggressively driving towards the centre. MPP for 16 years and Premier for a decade, her quote that “an NDPer in Alberta has to work three times harder than any other politician to earn votes” is a mantra that could be powerfully effective when taken nationwide — but at what political cost?

Note: Rachel Notley has declined to run and has highlighted Heather McPherson.

Matchups:

(3) Wab Kinew, Premier of Manitoba vs 
(14) Adrien Sala, MPP for St James

If Wab Kinew were to actually jump into this race, I think he would instantly become a top-3 competitor — and I doubt he’d be in third. The reason he’s a third seed is simply because I don’t think it is likely that he will run. As the currently most popular premier in the country at the start of your term with a clear majority, this is the time that you dream of as a politician – why waste it? Adrien Sala, meanwhile holds a strong role as Finance Minister in the Kinew cabinet in Manitoba, and along with Uzoma Asagwara, could be prairie possibilities if Wab Kinew doesn’t engage in the race.

Note: Wab Kinew has declined to run.

(4) Niki Ashton, ex-MP for Churchill-Keewatinook Aski vs 
(13) Uzoma Asagwara, MPP for Union Station

Is the third time the charm? Niki Ashton is the only candidate to have run for NDP leadership in both of the previous races, coming 7th in 2012 and 3rd in 2017 — and as the Socialist caucus’ pick in both of those races, she carries a clear political vision for the party’s future. Uzoma Asagwara is one of that special class of political candidates — the former athlete, in this case with Canada’s national basketball team. Now, they are a non-binary LGBTQ activist, psychiatric nurse, and the Deputy Premier and Minister for Health, Seniors and Long-Term Care under Wab Kinew.

(5) Leah Gazan, MP for Winnipeg Centre vs 
(12) Blake Desjarlais, ex-MP for Edmonton-Griesbach

One theory of how to unite the Canadian left is via intersectionality — being the best representative to pull the movements of climate activism, indigenous decolonization and LGBTQ rights into a unified front. If that’s your vision forward for the NDP, you’d be hard pressed to find better options than these two. Leah Gazan, a Lakota-Chinese-Jewish activist with Idle No More and MMIWG campaigns, still holds the riding of Winnipeg Centre. Blake Desjarlais, a Cree-Metis two-spirit, has been battling on the front lines of Edmonton-Griesbach with Rebel News pundit and pro-conversion therapy MP Kerry Diotte for the last two elections.

(6) Lori Idlout, MP for Nunavut vs 
(11) Mumilaaq Qaqqaq, ex-MP for Nunavut

After bursting onto the scene in 2017 with a citizen’s speech in the House of Commons on International Women’s Day, Mumilaaq’s fiery farewell address in 2021 marked the other bookend of one chapter of her career — but has a few years away sparked something new? Lori Idlout, who took over from Mumilaaq in a coin-flip nomination race, has held onto the northern outpost by less than 50 votes — but she is now one of the seven MPs at the table, so who knows what is possible next.

Note: Lori Idlout has declined to run.

(7) Daniel Blaikie, ex-MP for Elmwood-Transcona vs
(10) Leila Dance, ex-MP for Elmwood-Transcona 

This working-class, urban-suburban chunk of Winnipeg was home to Bill Blaikie’s 30-year run in Parliament from 1979 to 2008 — a term so long he became Dean of the House, the only NDP to ever hold this award for longevity. His son Daniel joined the family business, minding the proverbial store from 2015-2024 before resigning to join the Wab Kinew cabinet as a special advisor. The opportunity then fell to Leila Dance, who won the ensuing by-election before being narrowly toppled in April.

(8) Charlie Angus, ex-MP for Timmins-James Bay vs 
(9) Naheed Nenshi, leader of Alberta NDP and ex-Mayor of Calgary

Runner-up of the last leadership race, the only reason that I’ve put Charlie Angus so low on this list is that he retired earlier in this election cycle — and he did it early enough in 2024 that it feels unlikely he was doing it opportunistically. However, the punk rocker and serial author has stayed conspicuously active on the public stage…and speaking of public faces, Naheed Nenshi was the most popular big-city mayor in the country for more than a decade before stepping away in 2021, then replacing Notley as the leader of the Alberta NDP late last year.

Note: Charlie Angus has declined to run.

Back to the bracket list.

Ontario Division:

(1) Matthew Green
(2) Joel Harden
(3) Lindsay Mathyssen
(4) Brian Masse
(5) Bhutila Karpoche
(6) Marit Stiles
(7) Peggy Nash
(8) Olivia Chow
(9) Mike Layton
(10) Andrea Horwath
(11) Alex Silas
(12) Sarah Jama
(13) Paris Marx
(14) Desmond Cole

BYES:

(1) Matthew Green, ex-MP for Hamilton Centre

You know how there are “temporarily embarrassed millionaires”? Well, Matthew Green is a temporarily embarrassed politician. Despite being wiped out by this remarkable election, Matthew Green has a remarkably clear path back not only to the House of Commons, but to national relevancy. Combining industrial unionism with urban progressivism, it is impossible to deny that Matthew Green could manage to appeal to both orange-red and orange-blue swing voters.

(2) Joel Harden – ex-MPP for Ottawa Centre

I would also put Harden in the category of “temporarily embarrassed politician”, but in this case there is the added dynamic of having stepped away from a safer provincial seat to try to leap to the federal level. The change of jurisdiction makes sense – he has continually been drawn towards geopolitical issues, so why not go where he’s being called? A genuinely elite cyclist if his Strava is any indication, he is the only candidate on this list who could campaign coast-to-coast via campaign peloton.

Matchups:

(3) Lindsay Mathyssen, ex-MP for London-Fanshawe vs 
(14) Desmond Cole, journalist, author (The Skin We’re In) and activist

The biggest overperformance for the Conservatives in this election was through south-western Ontario — and the way back to relevance for the NDP leads through these same sorts of ridings. Mathyssen is another family story, following in her mother Irene’s footsteps – but she has also been a party stalwart, serving as a staffer for four other MPs before she ran for office herself. On the other end of the insider-outsider spectrum we have Desmond Cole, the author of 2020’s best-selling Canadian book The Skin We’re In. While he doesn’t have any former NDP ties, he is the former winner of the one-time City Idol contest from 2006 – so there is a base of political desire to draw on.

(4) Brian Masse, ex-MP for Windsor West vs 
(13) Paris Marx, podcaster (Tech Won’t Save Us) and author (Road to Nowhere) 

Similarly to London-Fanshawe, Windsor West is the sort of riding that the NDP simply has to be able to speak to if it wants to build a national coalition. With 23 years in the seat, Brian Masse has to have some thoughts about how to reclaim it — and to bring that messaging to the rest of the industrial regions of Canada. If classic factory work isn’t your speed, what about some techno-futurism? Paris Marx’s criticism of technology is more often a criticism of the capitalism underlying it — and wouldn’t it be fun to see how conservatives react to the NDP literally running under the banner of Marx?

(5) Bhutila Karpoche, ex-MPP in Parkdale-High Park vs 
(12) Sarah Jama, ex-MPP in Hamilton Centre

Bhutila made the switch to the federal race at precisely the wrong time, leaving her without a seat at either table — but after being voted Toronto’s best MPP in 2019-2021 and being just 40 years old, it is hard to believe that she will be done with politics just yet. In Sarah Jama, we have someone even younger — and who has proven that they aren’t done with politics by running as an independent twice. With Palestinian statehood continuing to be a major question for the party, could Jama force the issue with a federal leadership run?

(6) Marit Stiles, leader of Ontario NDP and MP for Davenport vs 
(11) Alex Silas, vice-president of Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC)

Before Marit Stiles was the Leader of the Opposition in Ontario, even before she was the MP for Davenport, she was the president of the federal NDP from 2016-2018. That means she was in charge of the party while it went through the most recent leadership race and she might be able to see how the next one is shaping up from a lofty perch. Alex Silas would be the epitome of a bottom-up campaign — from leading pickets through the 2023 national strikes, he has been recognized as one of the best professional rabble rousers in the country, and that sort of mass movement energy could take hold in a wide-open race.

(7) Peggy Nash, executive director of Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) vs 
(10) Andrea Horwath, Mayor of Hamilton and ex-leader of the Ontario NDP

There’s been a few candidates on this list who have jumped into academia or the non-profit sector upon ending their political career — but I would argue that none are better-placed to make the transition back into politics than Peggy Nash, who can combine her previous run for the federal leadership with the deepest policy perspectives of anyone in the race. Andrea Horwath has not stopped driving forward since she ran for Hamilton City Council in 1997, and can lay a claim to being responsible for some of the best NDP victories in the last 25 years along the way.

(8) Olivia Chow, Mayor of Toronto vs 
(9) Mike Layton, ex-Toronto city councillor 

Did I rig the seedings here to create a first-round matchup between stepmother and stepson for the rights to run under the legacy of Jack Layton? Yes! Olivia Chow is the much better known name here, having run twice for mayor of Canada’s largest city. However, Mike Layton is the only one with an undefeated record against Doug Ford, which… might come up again at the federal level.

Note: Olivia Chow has declined to run.

Back to the bracket list.

Closing the Bracket

The challenge that is ahead of the New Democratic Party is obvious. How does any potential new leader move the party forward? They can’t just create a core coalition to get elected as leader, they need to be able to reform the party itself, and find a way to convert their base into a cohesive message that gives the rest of Canada something to believe in.

That belief starts with you — because if you’ve read this far, I know you care about the future of progressive politics in Canada. Leadership races are the best time to plug into partisan politics because it is the only time that everything is really in flux. It is the most genuine chance an individual has to influence these larger party structures and to change the political conversation. There are 56 names on this list, and there were so many more that could have been added. If any of them resonate with you, reach out to them — because this is your chance to be a part of the madness.